Assumptions

We acknowledge that the current socio-economic situation significantly shifted over the past few years. For this reason, we have limited the number of  substantive assumptions and based the calculations on historical data and recent data received and issued by official and trusted sources: Ministry of Interior, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Electoral Law, political and electoral experts. 


At the time of this writing, we are  unable to predict which political coalitions will form for the 2022 elections.

  1. The number of seats allocated for each electoral district follows the seat allocation used in the parliamentary elections of 2018

  2. The tool will only give an accurate representation of parliamentary seats (128 MPs) when number of votes are realistic in each district (at least 10,000 voters per district)

  3. The total number of eligible voters per electoral district is based on the number of registered voters for the 2022 election. 

  4. Blank votes and invalid votes have been factored into the calculations. In each district, the number of blank and invalid votes is  assumed to be the same as 2018.We have  assumed the same number of lists that ran in each  district in 2018 

  5. One alternative list (not linked to the current political regime) has been assumed in each electoral district

  6. The final calculation of seats in parliament  follows the current Electoral Law that will be implemented in the 2022 elections:

o   The number of votes allocated to each traditional list, in each  district, is assumed to follow the ratios from the 2018 parliamentary elections. (For example, the model assumes there are four traditional lists in Beirut 1, since this was the number in 2018. If you allocate 10,000 votes to traditional lists in Beirut 1, the distribution of votes per list will match the ratio in 2018.)

o   The first threshold “al hassel el awwal” is calculated as follows:

  • (Traditional votes specified by user + Alternative votes specified by user + Blank Votes in 2018) / Number of seats of the given district

  • Lists that do not get votes equal or greater than the threshold will not be considered for the calculations of the second threshold “al hassel el thani”

  • The number of seats allocated for each list is based on the number of votes that the qualified list gets divided by the second threshold 

  • Fractions in seat allocations can occur – fractions have also been treated as specified in the current electoral law